Volume 5, Issue 4, July 2020, Page: 66-74
Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia
Chala Abebe Aredo, Oromia Seed Enterprize (OSE), Sinan Farm, Bale-Robe, Ethiopia
Cherinet Seboka Ambaye, College of Natural Science, Physics Department, Madda Walabu University, Bale-Robe, Ethiopia
Received: Feb. 6, 2020;       Accepted: Mar. 4, 2020;       Published: Sep. 7, 2020
DOI: 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12      View  95      Downloads  39
Impacts of climate variability and disease prevalence on crop productivity (particularly wheat yield) are becoming major concern on their stable supply that affecting the livelihood of the farmers and consumers in South-East Ethiopia. The study was carried out with general objective to examine the effect of precipitation, temperature variation and disease prevalence on winter wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) for the last 20 years in Sinana farm of Oromia Seed Enterprise south east Ethiopia. Temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test methods. The Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to measure the strength of the association between crop yield and climatic variability. Predictor models on productivity status comprising disease prevalence associated to climate variability for 20 years were established. A1°C temperature rise in average seasonal maximum temperature above the optimum brought productivity reduction by 1.17% coefficient of determination R2=0.428. Further, in 1°C temperature rise, the regression analysis of the productivity related to stem rust prevalence was subjected to a positive impact under Tmin, Tmax, RH, and seasonal RF with coefficient of determination R2=0.756. On the other hand, yellow rust prevalence was positively correlated with minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average relative humidity, but it was negatively correlated with average seasonal temperature. The study concluded that the variability of climate elements has been exerting a huge impact on the quality and quantity of winter wheat.
Climate Variability, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s Slop, Stem Rust, Yellow Rust
To cite this article
Chala Abebe Aredo, Cherinet Seboka Ambaye, Impact of Climate Variability and Its Related Disease Prevalence on the Yield of Winter Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Lam) in South East Ethiopia, International Journal of Energy and Environmental Science. Vol. 5, No. 4, 2020, pp. 66-74. doi: 10.11648/j.ijees.20200504.12
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